Air cargo carriers are reporting a significant uptick in demand as the holiday season approaches, with volumes reaching levels not seen since the pandemic peak. This surge is driven by a perfect storm of factors: ocean freight delays, the explosive growth of cross-border e-commerce, and the traditional holiday rush.
The "Red Sea Effect" on Air Cargo
The ongoing crisis in the Red Sea has made ocean freight slower and less reliable for time-sensitive shipments. As a result, many shippers have shifted from sea to air (or sea-air hybrid solutions) to ensure their products reach shelves on time. This mode conversion has absorbed capacity and driven up air freight rates on key lanes from Asia to Europe and North America.
The E-commerce Juggernaut
The relentless expansion of e-commerce platforms like Shein and Temu is a major driver of air freight demand. These "fast fashion" and consumer goods giants rely almost exclusively on air cargo to deliver direct-to-consumer from factories in China to doorsteps in the West. It is estimated that these platforms alone account for a significant percentage of daily air cargo volume out of Southern China.
Rate Analysis and Capacity
Spot rates out of Asia have climbed steadily. While passenger belly capacity has returned to pre-pandemic levels, the demand is outstripping supply in key hubs. Dedicated freighters are flying full, and charter prices are rising.
Outlook for Q4
Analysts predict that demand will remain strong through December. Shippers looking to move goods by air should book space well in advance. "The days of last-minute cheap air freight are over for this season," says air cargo specialist James Wu. "Planning and block space agreements are key."
